Olive and Grass Pollen Concentrations: Evaluation of Forecast Models with Real Observations as Standard in the Évora Region, Portugal

Abstract

The CAMS Regional System provides crucial, reliable pollen forecasts for allergenic pollen types. These robust predictions support the scientific and medical communities, aiding in the diagnosis, evaluation, and protection of allergic populations. So, the main goal of this study was to evaluate which model, or models best represent and simulate the olive and grass pollen data of the Évora region in the years 2021 to 2024. Results: The results showed that there are statistically significant differences between the data of the models and between the years for each of the pollen types considered. These differences were not just in pollen concentrations; they also appeared in characteristics of the pollen season, like its duration, maximum peak concentration, start date and exposure level. According to Taylor diagrams, applying moving average for normalized data, it was shown that MOCAGE best represents and simulates olive concentration data. For grass pollen SILAM, EURAD-IM and MOCAGE were the best performers. Conclusions: CAMS data can enhance the quality of life of the allergic population, as well as support the scientific and medical community to improve, assist and create mitigation measures that reduce exposure and consequently significantly reduce the occurrence of allergic disease.