Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/41126
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| Title: | Risk without borders: a transfer entropy analysis of geopolitical spillovers in low- and lower-middle-income markets |
| Authors: | Almeida, Dora
Ferreira, Paulo
Aslam, Faheem |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk
low-income countries
lower-middle-income countries
information spillovers
transfer entropy |
| Issue Date: | Jan-2026 |
| Publisher: | Economics and Business Letters |
| Citation: | D. Almeida, P.J. Ferreira and F. Aslam (2026) Risk without borders: a transfer entropy analysis of
geopolitical spillovers in low- and lower-middle-income markets, Economics and Business Letters, 15(1), 56-69.
DOI: 10.17811/ebl.15.1.2026.56-69. |
| Abstract: | Abstract
How geopolitical risk affects stock markets in low and lower-middle-income countries remains
an area often overlooked. This study analyzes daily data from 2014 to 2025 for 16 stock
markets and two geopolitical risk subindices, acts and threats. The transfer entropy is applied
in a dynamic framework to measure asymmetric and time-varying information flows. The
findings reveal a heterogeneous influence of acts and threats, varying by country-income level,
geographic region, and over time, and suggest an increased sensitivity of financial markets
after 2020, particularly in response to acts rather than threats. This highlights distinct
geopolitical risk transmission, requiring tailored investment strategies and policy responses |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/41126 |
| Type: | article |
| Appears in Collections: | CEFAGE - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica
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