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http://hdl.handle.net/10174/34627
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Title: | Reference Forecasts for CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Production in Portugal, |
Authors: | Belbute, José Pereira, Alfredo |
Keywords: | CO2 emissions IPCC emission Targets Long memory ARFIMA Portugal |
Issue Date: | 15-Jun-2020 |
Publisher: | Energy Policy |
Citation: | Belbute, J. and Pereira, A. (2020). “Reference Forecasts for CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Production in Portugal,” Energy Policy, 144, 111642. doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111642 |
Abstract: | We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal
based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our reference projections
suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030
and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by
2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary for emissions to be reduced by 39.9 Mt by 2050. Our results
suggest that of these, only 8.4 Mt will result from the inertia of the national emissions system. The remaining
reduction on emissions of 31.5 Mt of CO2 will require additional policy efforts. Accordingly, our results suggest
that about 65.5% of the reductions necessary to achieve IPCC goals require deliberate policy efforts. Finally, the
presence in the data of long memory with mean reversion suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure that
these reductions in emissions are also permanent. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/34627 |
Type: | article |
Appears in Collections: | ECN - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica CEFAGE - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica
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