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Title: Improved ECMWF forecasts of direct normal irradiance: A tool for better operational strategies in concentrating solar power plants
Authors: Lopes, Francisco
Conceição, Ricardo
Silva, Hugo
Salgado, Rui
Collares-Pereira, Manuel
Editors: Kalogirou, Soteris
Keywords: ECMWF
Direct normal irradiance
Short-term forecasting
Model output statistics
Concentrating solar power operalation
Energy production simulations
Issue Date: 4-Sep-2020
Publisher: Renewable Energy
Citation: Francis M. Lopes, Ricardo Conceição, Hugo G. Silva, Rui Salgado and Manuel Collares-Pereira. Improved ECMWF forecasts of direct normal irradiance: a tool for better operational strategies in concentrating solar power plants. Renewable Energy 2020.
Abstract: To contribute for improved operational strategies of concentrating solar power plants with accurate forecasts of direct normal irradiance, this work describes the use of several post-processing methods on numerical weather prediction. Focus is given to a multivariate regression model that uses measured irradiance values from previous hours to improve next-hour predictions, which can be used to refine daily strategies based on day-ahead predictions. Short-term forecasts provided by the Integrated Forecasting System, the global model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are used together with measurements in southern Portugal. As a nowcasting tool, the proposed regression model significantly improves hourly predictions with a skill score of z0.84 (i.e. an increase of z27.29% towards the original hourly forecasts). Using previous-day measured availability to improve next-day forecasts, the model shows a skill score of z0.78 (i.e. an increase of z6% towards the original forecasts), being further improved if larger sets of data are used. Through a power plant simulator (i.e. the System Advisor Model), a preliminary economic analysis shows that using improved hourly predictions of electrical energy allows to enhance a power plant’s profit in z0.44 MV/year, as compared with the original forecasts. Operational strategies are proposed accordingly.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:CI-ER - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica

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