Development and validation of a continuous fall risk score in community-dwelling older people: an ecological approach

Abstract

Background Fall risk assessment in older people is of major importance for providing adequate preventive measures. Current predictive models are mainly focused on intrinsic risk factors and do not adjust for contextual exposure. The validity and utility of continuous risk scores have already been demonstrated in clinical practice in several diseases. In this study, we aimed to develop and validate an intrinsic-exposure continuous fall risk score (cFRs) for community-dwelling older people through standardized residuals.

Methods Self-reported falls in the last year were recorded from 504 older persons (391 women: age 73.1 ± 6.5 years; 113 men: age 74.0 ± 6.1 years). Participants were categorized as occasional fallers (falls ≤1) or recurrent fallers (≥ 2 falls). The cFRs was derived for each participant by summing the standardized residuals (Z-scores) of the intrinsic fall risk factors and exposure factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the accuracy of the cFRs for identifying recurrent fallers.

Results The cFRs varied according to the number of reported falls; it was lowest in the group with no falls (− 1.66 ± 2.59), higher in the group with one fall (0.05 ± 3.13, p < 0.001), and highest in the group with recurrent fallers (2.82 ± 3.94, p < 0.001). The cFRs cutoff level yielding the maximal sensitivity and specificity for identifying recurrent fallers was 1.14, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.790 (95% confidence interval: 0.746–0.833; p < 0.001).

Conclusions The cFRs was shown to be a valid dynamic multifactorial fall risk assessment tool for epidemiological analyses and clinical practice. Moreover, the potential for the cFRs to become a widely used approach regarding fall prevention in community-dwelling older people was demonstrated, since it involves a holistic intrinsic-exposure approach to the phenomena. Further investigation is required to validate the cFRs with other samples since it is a sample-specific tool.