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Title: Revisiting mortality deceleration patterns in a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham framework
Authors: Ribeiro, Filipe
Missov, Trifon
Editors: Schoen, Robert
Keywords: Mortality deceleration
Longevity dynamics
Issue Date: 20-Feb-2016
Publisher: Springer
Citation: Ribeiro, F. e Missov, T.I. (2016). Revisiting mortality deceleration patterns under a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham framework. In Robert Schoen (Ed.) Dynamic Demographic Analysis, Springer, ISBN 978-3-319-26601-5.
Abstract: We calculate life-table aging rates (LARs) for overall mortality by estimating a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham (G GM) model and taking advantage of LAR’s parametric representation by Vaupel and Zhang [34]. For selected HMD countries, we study how the evolution of estimated LAR patterns could explain observed 1) longevity dynamics, and 2) mortality improvement or deterioration at different ages. Surprisingly, the age of mortality deceleration x showed almost no correlation with a number of longevity measures apart from e0. In addition, as mortality concentrates at older ages with time, its characteristic bell-shaped pattern becomes more pronounced. Moreover, in a GGM framework, we identify the impact of senescent mortality on shape of the rate of population aging. We also find evidence for a strong relationship between x and the statistically significant curvilinear changes in the evolution of e0 over time. Finally, model-based LARs appear to be consistent with point b) of the “heterogeneity hypothesis” [12]: mortality deceleration, due to selection effects, should shift to older ages as the level of total adult mortality declines.
Type: bookPart
Appears in Collections:CIDEHUS - Publicações - Capítulos de Livros

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